I would like to think that Rogers’ performance this October would serve as a reminder to people that the sample sizes we work with in the postseason aren’t meaningful, that a major-league baseball player can do just about anything in a span of a few outings or a handful of at-bats. You can't evaluate a player, and you certainly can’t extrapolate conclusions about his character, based on what he does in a playoff series or three. Baseball is much, much harder than that.Some of you will write in to tell me that I’ve made this point, and I should stop harping on it. Objection noted, but until the message begins to take hold—and I see no evidence that it has—I will keep bringing it up.
Even I'm tired of typing the words "small sample size." But it seems the likeliest explanation for how notorious playoff choker Kenny Rogers is now clutch playoff hero Kenny Rogers. Up until this year, Kenny had been horrendous in the playoffs -- for exactly 20 and 1/3 innings. So we all knew he couldn't get it done under the bright lights of the postseason. Until now, right after he puts together a crazy 23-inning scoreless streak. Here's something, though -- the aggregate of the two Kennys? A total playoff ERA of 4.15. Kenny's career regular season ERA? 4.19.
If Kenny can do it, why not Rodriguez? Although, Sheehan continues:
Of course, this could all be moot if it turns out that Rogers is cheating.
Now I turn to Mr. Walsh. Mr. Walsh, you have been Mr. Rules of late, stating that Barry Bonds "cheated" and is therefore a terrible ballplayer/human, ditto Jason Giambi. What about your boy, the ace of the Tigers' staff, the gambler?
I personally care about as much about Rogers cheating as I do about Bonds or Giambi. Yes, it should be illegal. Do I care when the rule is broken? Not really. (In the case of greasing the ball, I actually think it's pretty damn intriguing.)
2 comments:
I have never said anything towards Giambi in this light. He should be comended for coming forward and "apologizing" for nothing.
As for Bonds, he's still worthless.
And as for K Rog ... Ian, just check out his nickname, then you'll understand why he's taking risks this postseason.
As for your original point, let me throw these stats at you about your boy, Mr. A-Fraud.
In his postseason career, he has 132 at bats, which is a significant sample size.
Key Stats:
Career BA: .305
Postseason BA: .280
Postseason BA w/ NYY: .241
Avg Hr per season: 43
Postseason HR avg'd over a full season: 29
AVG RBI per season: 125
Postseason RBI avg'd over a full season: 74.1
I can completely understand why Yankees fans are crooning for a big trade this offseason. You have finally realized that big names don't win championships. The next step is to learn that championships in this era of baseball aren't built overnight, they are teams with a little bit of talent and a lot of chemistry that come out of nowhere. For your consideration:
2001 D-Backs
2002 Angels
2003 Marlins
2004 Red Sox
2005 White Sox
Where were those teams at the beginning of those years?? The D-Backs had two aces, ya. The Red Sox had a big payroll, okay. But they were both inferior teams within their own division (Yankees and Giants).
Sometimes addition by subtraction does work, and I think moving A Rod out of New York for a pitcher is the right thing to do. Will the Yankees be able to get Oswalt? I doubt it. Could they get Zambrano? Unlikely. If they do move A-Rod, will they get a slugger and a 2nd tier pitcher?? This seems like the most likely scenerio to me (Derek Lee and Rich Hill, watch for it).
In the end I don't think Cashman will have the steel marbles to move A-Rod for thirty cents on the dollar. What you Yankees fans need to hope for is a little shake up in the New York front office, with my man Theo taking over for the beleaguered Brian Cashman.
After all, you do remember a certain little Boston shortstop named N-O-M-A-H...
Here are the factors necessary to win in the playoffs, in order, weighted:
PITCHING PITCHING PITCHING PITCHING PITCHING LUCK LUCK LUCK LUCK LUCK HITTING HITTING HITTING HITTING DEFENSE DEFENSE
A-Rod has 6,767 at-bats in his career. He averages 628 a season how the hell is 132 a significant sample size? Also, a .280 batting average in 132 at-bats is by no means an automatic drawback. If you want to take a step back from manipulating data for just second, and point out that that .241 batting average came in only 79 at-bats, 45 of which came against the eventual pennant winners, then I'd point out that it is almost meaningless. As far as a 3bman that hits 29 HRs and 74 RBI in a season, I'd take him, wouldn't you? Except A-Rod hits many, many more than that each year.
Why is it that A-Rod's detractors point to his postseason failures as a surefire indicator that he will never succeed, but ignore his entire postseason career before the 04 ALCS as evidence that he can succeed.
As far as the championship teams you mentioned, the D-Backs and White Sox had incredible pitching. The Red Sox, Marlins, and Angels were wild card teams. Seems to fit into my above formula, doesn't it? What separates these teams, and the late 90s Yankees is not chemistry. It's pitching and luck. You think if you got Scott Brosius and Tino Martinez up in the same situations as in the 01 WS again, that they'd hit another home run? If you gave them 10 tries? 20 tries? 132 tries? What about Aaron Boone? Great team chemistry wins championships, like the drunken, plane-destroying, coke-snorting 86 mets? How about the Steroid-taking, drunken, coke-snorting 93 Phillies (didn't win, but you know). Or the "too much talent, superstar-laden" 1927, 1961, 2000 Yankees? Baseball is a team sport for three or four double plays a game. Other than that, it is up to each individual to perform.
Is the New York atmosphere getting to A-Rod? Yeah, maybe a little. I don't think it will forever. And I certainly don't think trading A-Rod will make anyone else on the team a better hitter in the playoffs. If they trade A-Rod, I am NOT content with a #2 guy and a slugger. They have two #2 guys in Mussina (who will likely walk) and Wang. They have a lineup full of sluggers. It's not worth trading one of the main reasons the Yankees keep winning the division with the pitching they have had.
Are you telling me the Red Sox won in 04 because they got rid of Nomar?
I think Brian Cashman sucks, no argument here. Get him out. Get Torre out too.
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